Abstract
Achieving climate targets and advancing global carbon neutrality critically depend on the secure and stable supply of key metals for clean energy technologies, such as copper, silver, and rare earth elements. However, the rapid scale-up of clean energy deployment has driven a sharp increase in demand for these critical metals. When compounded by supply-chain disruptions, this surge may lead to sustained price increases, thereby raising transition costs and potentially delaying the achievement of climate goals.
To address this challenge, it is essential to assess how rising metal prices affect transition costs and deployment trajectories, and to identify the pathways through which risks are transmitted. This study develops a chained transmission framework linking metal prices–technology costs–end-use deployment. It reveals heterogeneous impacts of critical metal price increases on the costs and scale of wind and solar PV deployment across regions and technologies worldwide. The study further quantifies the mitigation effectiveness of technology portfolios, including mining productivity improvements and material substitution. The findings provide robust scientific evidence and strategic insights for managing and mitigating risks in the energy transition.
Speaker Bio
Li Jiashuo is a Professor and PhD Supervisor at the Institute of Frontier and Interdisciplinary Science, Weihai Campus, Shandong University, and a recipient of the National Science Foundation of China’s Excellent Young Scientists Fund. His research focuses on the management of clean and low-carbon energy transitions, with particular emphasis on integrated economic, social, and environmental impact assessment of energy infrastructure transitions, as well as strategies for clean and low-carbon development.
He has published more than 50 papers in leading international journals, including Nature, Nature sub-journals, and Cell sister journals, with multiple publications recognized as ESI Hot Papers or Highly Cited Papers. His work has been positively reviewed and cited by Nature and its affiliated journals, as well as by international organizations such as the United Nations Environment Programme.
Professor Li has led four projects funded by the Management Science Division of the National Natural Science Foundation of China and one sub-project under the National Key R&D Program. He serves on the editorial boards of several international journals, including Scientific Data, and is a member of the Advisory Board of Cell Reports Sustainability. His honors include the First Prize of Outstanding Scientific Research Achievements of Higher Education Institutions in Shandong Province and the First Prize for Policy Advisory Achievements awarded by the Central Committee of the China Association for Promoting Democracy. His policy briefs have received affirmative instructions from senior Party and state leaders.
